Introducing Stone Centre PhD Scholar Guido Spanò

A warm welcome to Guido Spanò, who explores why the same interest rate decision can affect households so differently.

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Guido brings experience from the European Central Bank to the Stone Centre as one of our 2026/2027 Stone PhD Scholars. We talked to Guido about why that work led to a PhD, and how banks shape who gains and who loses when interest rates change.

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Could you tell us a little about your academic background and how you came to economics?

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During my bachelor’s and master’s studies, I focused on applying statistics to economics and finance to better understand the complex world we live in. Motivated by a desire to contribute to an economy that works for everyone, I applied to the European Central Bank, where I have been working for three years. This experience has been transformative, showing me how further research can help policymakers make better decisions for society. I became particularly interested in how monetary policy is transmitted through the banking system and how it affects inequality. These questions motivated me to apply for a PhD in Economics, and I feel honoured to be pursuing it at UCL.

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What made you want to do a PhD, and was there a particular question or moment that drew you to your topic?

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What excites me about a PhD is the chance to take a question that matters and get to the bottom of it. My research centres on a simple puzzle: when a central bank changes interest rates, why do households experience such different consequences? Banks’ decisions about savings and borrowing rates are an important part of that story.

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How would you explain your research to someone outside economics?

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I study how changes in interest rates reach people through their banks. Your mortgage payments might rise quickly while the interest on your savings barely changes — and the consequences depend on what you own and what you owe. I combine data with economic models to understand who gains, who loses, and what this means for wealth inequality.

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Why do you think it matters who is affected by monetary policy, and how might changes in interest rates affect wealth differently between households?

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Because the same policy decision can have very different consequences for people’s living standards. When borrowing costs rise faster than savings rates, bank shareholders may benefit at the expense of borrowers and depositors, potentially widening wealth gaps. But higher rates can also lower asset values, affecting wealthier households. My research explores how these forces fit together, alongside changes in jobs and incomes. Lastly, the way aggregate measures (like total consumption and price levels) respond to changes in monetary policy crucially depends on how different households are exposed to this policy; therefore, understanding the distributional effects of monetary policy is necessary for a complete assessment of aggregate changes as well.

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Why does it matter that some households can't easily borrow or save, and what might that mean for how central banks make decisions?

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Households with little savings and limited access to credit have less room to absorb a financial shock. A change in income or mortgage payments can therefore translate quickly into changes in everyday spending. Understanding these differences helps central banks assess how strongly their decisions will affect the economy — and which households will feel the greatest pressure.

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What are you hoping to get out of being part of the Stone Centre community, and what would you like to have achieved by the end of your PhD?

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I’m excited to exchange ideas with researchers studying inequality from different perspectives, and to learn through the Stone Centre’s mentorship and policy discussions. By the end of my PhD, I hope to have produced rigorous research that clarifies how banks shape monetary policy’s effects on inequality — and to communicate those findings in ways that are useful beyond academia.