Hugo Reis
Pedro Carneiro
Raul Santaeulalia-Llopis
Diego Restuccia
Chaoran Chen
Brad J. Hershbein
Claudia Macaluso
Chen Yeh
Xuan Tam
Xin Tang
Marina M. Tavares
Adrian Peralta-Alva
Carlos Carillo-Tudela
Felix Koenig
Joze Sambt
Ronald Lee
James Sefton
David McCarthy
Bledi Taska
Carter Braxton
Alp Simsek
Plamen T. Nenov
Gabriel Chodorow-Reich
Virgiliu Midrigan
Corina Boar
Sauro Mocetti
Guglielmo Barone
Steven J. Davis
Nicholas Bloom
José María Barrero
Thomas Sampson
Adrien Matray
Natalie Bau
Darryl Koehler
Laurence J. Kotlikoff
Alan J. Auerbach
Irina Popova
Alexander Ludwig
Dirk Krueger
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
Taylor Jaworski
Walker Hanlon
Ludo Visschers
Carlos Carillo-Tudela
Henrik Kleven
Kristian Jakobsen
Katrine Marie Jakobsen
Alessandro Guarnieri
Tanguy van Ypersele
Fabien Petit
Cecilia García-Peñalosa
Yonatan Berman
Nina Weber
Julian Limberg
David Hope
Pedro Tremacoldi-Rossi
Tatiana Mocanu
Marco Ranaldi
Silvia Vannutelli
Raymond Fisman
John Voorheis
Reed Walker
Janet Currie
Roel Dom
Marcos Vera-Hernández
Emla Fitzsimons
José V. Rodríguez Mora
Tomasa Rodrigo
Álvaro Ortiz
Stephen Hansen
Vasco Carvalho
Gergely Buda
Gabriel Zucman
Anders Jensen
Matthew Fisher-Post
José-Alberto Guerra
Myra Mohnen
Christopher Timmins
Ignacio Sarmiento-Barbieri
Peter Christensen
Linda Wu
Gaurav Khatri
Julián Costas-Fernández
Eleonora Patacchini
Jorgen Harris
Marco Battaglini
Ricardo Fernholz
Alberto Bisin
Jess Benhabib
Cian Ruane
Pete Klenow
Mark Bils
Peter Hull
Will Dobbie
David Arnold
Eric Zwick
Owen Zidar
Matt Smith
Ansgar Walther
Tarun Ramadorai

The long-run evolution of absolute intergenerational mobility

What is this research about and why did you do it?

This paper is about an understudied, yet important, aspect of social mobility – absolute mobility. Absolute mobility measures the share of children with higher incomes compared to their parents around the same age. In a growing economy, we expect this share to be very high, and even close to 100%. Yet, to what extent it is indeed the case, we do not know. This research estimates this share over the course of the 20th century in ten rich economies across four continents.

How did you answer this question?

To estimate absolute mobility, one has to link parents and children across generations. This is a difficult task, which typically requires data that cannot be found in many places, especially if we are interested in historical data. This required establishing a methodology (building on previous work by Chetty et al. (2017)) that allows estimating absolute mobility with plausible accuracy without such rich and rare data. I then used income data from the World Inequality Database combined with existing knowledge from the literature on relative mobility in different countries for that purpose.

What did you find?

The paper has two main findings: First, absolute mobility decreased during the second half of the twentieth century in all the countries studied. It is close to 100% in most countries for 1930s-1950s cohorts. But for children born in the 1980s, it can be as low as 55% in some countries. About half of the children born in this decade in those countries do not exceed their parents’ incomes as adults.

Second, I find that increasing income inequality and decreasing growth rates have both contributed to the decreasing absolute mobility, yet growth is the dominant contributor in most countries.

The chart shows the evolution of absolute intergenerational mobility in ten advanced economies over the 20th century. In each case the estimates represent the share of adults with higher real income than their parents around the same age. The comparison is done so that each cohort's year represents adults who were born in that year, and their incomes are estimated 30 years later. For example, about 90% of the people born around 1950 in France had higher incomes than their parents at the age of 30. The children's incomes are estimated at 1980, while the parents' incomes are estimated in 1950.

What implications does this have for the research on wealth concentration or economic inequality?

The study can be used for teaching about different concepts of social mobility. It also includes a methodological importance for how to combine cross-sectional data, which are quite common, to produce synthetic panels. This is a useful methodology that could be used in many contexts involving income and wealth distributions.

What are the next steps in your agenda?

This paper, along with many other recent papers, contributes to our knowledge about the state of social mobility, and improves our ability to measure it. The next steps, including mine, should be about studying how policy can affect social mobility.

Citation and related resources

This paper can be cited as follows: Berman, Y. (2022) 'The Long-Run Evolution of Absolute Intergenerational Mobility.' American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 14(3), pp. 61-83.

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